Model favors high-scoring opener between Kansas Jayhawks and Fresno State Bulldogs

Kurt Warner
Kurt Warner

The Kansas Jayhawks are set to face the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday in their first meeting in program history. The matchup at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium opens the Week 0 college football schedule, with kickoff scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET.

Kansas enters as a 12.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, with an over/under of 50.5 total points. Last season, Kansas finished with a 5-7 record overall and 4-5 in the Big 12. Fresno State posted a 6-7 overall record and went 4-3 in the Mountain West Conference under interim coach Tim Skipper. This year, Matt Entz will lead the Bulldogs as head coach for the first time.

SportsLine’s computer model has simulated this game 10,000 times and identified three best bets: taking Fresno State plus the points (+12.5), betting over 50.5 total points scored, and betting on Fresno State to score more than 17.5 total team points.

After winning two FCS national championships over five seasons at North Dakota State, Entz was hired as USC assistant head coach last year before accepting his current role at Fresno State. At North Dakota State, Entz posted a record of 60-10.

Fresno State lost much of its offensive production from last season but returns Bryson Donelson, who led all players with at least 20 carries by averaging six yards per carry on his way to being the team’s second-leading rusher with 462 yards.

Defensively, Fresno State will rely on Jahzon Jacks, who has played in twenty-nine games during his career so far. Defensive lineman Korey Foreman transferred from USC and recorded three sacks for the Bulldogs last year; Finn Claypool, a transfer from Duke, is also expected to play a key role this season.

Kansas counters with experienced quarterback Jalon Daniels entering his sixth season and fourth as Lance Leipold’s Week One starter. Daniels threw for two thousand four hundred fifty-four yards and ran for four hundred forty-seven more last season while accounting for twenty touchdowns.

Defensively, Kansas allowed an average of two hundred forty-nine point three passing yards per game last year—ranking one hundred fifth nationally—and now faces E.J. Warner starting at quarterback for Fresno State this fall. Warner is the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinee Kurt Warner and transferred after throwing for two thousand seven hundred ten yards at Rice last season; he had previously recorded back-to-back seasons above three thousand passing yards at Temple.

The SportsLine model projects that Warner will help lead an improved Bulldogs offense complemented by Donelson’s production out of the backfield and expects Fresno State to score twenty-four points in Saturday’s debut.

For fans seeking additional picks beyond this game, SportsLine offers predictions against the spread, totals and money-line outcomes for every Week Zero college football contest based on extensive simulations.


Organizations Mentioned: Pro Football Hall of Fame

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