The recently released Madden NFL 26 video game was used to simulate the upcoming 2025 National Football League season, with outcomes compared to current betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. The analysis focused on conference titles, regular season and Super Bowl Most Valuable Player awards, and projected Super Bowl champions.
According to the simulations, six different teams emerged as winners of the American Football Conference, but the Baltimore Ravens were the most frequently crowned champions, winning 40% of all simulations. The Kansas City Chiefs, often seen as strong contenders in real-world odds, only reached the Super Bowl once in ten tries. Teams such as the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders also made notable showings in these virtual scenarios.
In the National Football Conference, six different teams earned a chance to lift the George Halas Trophy during the simulations. While some may have expected another dominant showing from the Philadelphia Eagles, Madden projected that the Green Bay Packers would be more likely conference victors than reflected by market odds. Other teams mentioned include the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders.
For individual accolades, quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes dominated projections for league MVP honors, accounting for 80% of simulated wins. The results suggest they are significant frontrunners over other candidates like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
When it came to predicting Super Bowl champions, seven franchises took home the simulated Lombardi Trophy across ten seasons. Both the Chargers and Packers secured two titles each in these trials, while Philadelphia managed consecutive wins twice. The New England Patriots also appeared as champions in one simulation run.
Super Bowl MVP predictions included a variety of positions: while most selections were quarterbacks—such as Jalen Hurts (who was named MVP for both Eagles victories), Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield—the simulation occasionally highlighted running back Josh Jacobs, defensive tackle Kobie Turner and defensive back Elijah Molden for these honors.
The analysis concluded that “Madden 26 is far from a crystal ball,” noting that unexpected player picks for Super Bowl MVP demonstrate potential unpredictability in using video game simulations for betting purposes. However, certain patterns—such as Baltimore’s favorable projections in the AFC or Green Bay’s unexpected frequency as an NFC champion—were suggested as possible insights for those interested in alternative predictive angles.
